Politics

Situation Report 8 – May 2022 : Diplomat Magazine


On the grand strategic level, Mark Fitzpatrick of the International Institute for Strategic Studies believes Russia will keep all options on the table to achieve its military objectives in Ukraine, including nuclear weapons.

 

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and other Cabinet Members made a surprise visit to Kyiv as Russia readies for the annual Victory Day parade. There is a fear that Russia will formally declare war and announce full mobilization. 

 

Canada and the US announced the reopening of their embassies in Kyiv. 

 

Jill Biden made an unannounced visit to Ukraine, where she met the country’s First Lady, Olena Zelensky, who has been in hiding since the Russian invasion  began.

 

Prime Minister of Croatia Andrej Plenkovic arrived in Kyiv on May 8 to meet with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

 

Russia is spending an estimated $900 million a day on war in Ukraine.

 

On the ground, the Institute for the Study of War has said that Ukrainian forces in Kharkiv Oblast will likely advance to the Russian border in the coming days. The Ukrainian counteroffensive has likely forced Russian troops to redeploy to Kharkiv instead of reinforcing Russian offensive operations elsewhere in eastern Ukraine. Russian forces are likely amassing in Belgorod to reinforce Russian efforts in northern Kharkiv. Russian forces are continuing their attempt to reach the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts but have not made substantial territorial gains since securing Popasna.

 

Russian and Belarusian forces continue “demonstrative actions” to fix Ukrainian forces around Kyiv in place.

 

Russian forces shelled Ukrainian border towns in Sumy and Chernihiv oblasts.

 

The Ukrainian military says Russia continued bombing towns and villages in the country’s northeast. Russia shelled Prudyanka, Slatine and Tsyrkuny near Kharkiv.

 

Russian forces near Izyum focused on regrouping, replenishing, and reconnoitering Ukrainian positions in order to continue advances to the southwest and southeast of Izyum.

 

Evacuation from the Luhansk Oblast has  stopped as Russian forces are shelling the Lysychansk-Bakhmut highway, rendering evacuation “not possible.”

 

Ukrainian soldiers at the besieged Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol have pledged to continue fighting “for as long as we are alive”.

 

Russia aims to occupy the whole Kherson Oblast and create favorable conditions to attack the cities of Mykolaiv and Kryvyi Rih.

 

Since midnight Ukraine time, at least seven air raids have taken place on Odesa, Hanna and Shelest. 

 

Russian troops may be preparing for a renewed offensive on the Southern Axis. 

 

 

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