Situation Report 10 – May 2022 : Diplomat Magazine

At the grand strategic level, Director of National Intelligence, Avril Haines, said the US Intelligence community believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin plans on a long Ukraine War and the US and NATO losing interest. They also revealed that he wanted to widen the war to Transnistria and Moldova. Intelligence suggests Putin might invoke martial law to support the war effort. 


US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that Western officials have accused Russia of mass cyberattack on satellite internet in Ukraine shortly before invasion severely disrupting Ukrainian Command and Control. 


According to the EU Council, Russia could launch similar cyberattacks on other countries, “putting the security of Europe’s citizens at risk.”


Germany’s Foreign Minister has said that Ukraine should become a member of the European Union. 


At the operational level, Ukraine’s airspace remains contested, and Russian aircraft are wary of venturing in too close especially with Slovakian-provided S-300s now in service. Russia is now up to 99 battalion tactical groups, after adding two airborne groups in the last day. Western officials believe Russia has deployed roughly 65-70 percent of its ground forces to Ukraine. The US believes that Russia has honed in on the northern line of advance out of Izyum into the Donbas, focused on Sloviansk. Two other advances have stalled due to Ukrainian resistance.Russia remains in control of Popasna. Russia still has 20 warships in the Black Sea, with many of them moving further away from the shore of western Ukraine to stay out of range of Neptune missiles that hit and destroyed the cruiser flagship Moskva. At present there is no indication that an amphibious assault on Odesa is coming.


On the ground, Belarus state-controlled news agency Belta reported that “to respond to the threat from the Armed Forces of Ukraine” the country is sending special operation forces to its border with Ukraine.


Air raid sirens sounded across several regions early on Tuesday, including Luhansk, Kharkiv and Dnipro. The Luhansk region was attacked 22 times. One person was killed and five were injured in the Black Sea port city of Odesa when seven missiles hit a shopping centre and a depot.


Russian and Belarusian forces continue “demonstrative actions” to fix Ukrainian forces around Kyiv in place


The Ukrainian counteroffensive in northern Kharkiv took further ground and have moved closed to within 10 kilometres of the Russian border.


Ukrainian forces liberated four settlements in Kharkiv Oblast including the villages of Cherkaski Tyshky, Ruski Tyshky, and Bairak, as well as the Rubizhne city. 


Russian operations around Izyum remain stalled.


Russian forces in eastern Ukraine continued attempts to encircle the Severodonetsk area and reportedly reached the Donetsk-Luhansk administrative border from Popasna.


Russian troops shelled Sloviansk in the Donetsk Oblast targeting the central part of the city.


The Russian Army has resumed storming of Azovstal plant in Mariupol, despite a ceasefire declared earlier.


Russian and Ukrainian forces did not conduct any significant attacks on the southern axis.


Russian units in Zaporizhia Oblast are regrouping and will likely receive reinforcements from forces previously deployed in Mariupol.


It was reported that Russia brought additional artillery units to the north of the occupied Crimea and can use them to attack Kherson Oblast. 


Russia aims to occupy the whole Kherson Oblast and create favorable conditions to attack the cities of Mykolaiv and Kryvyi Rih.


The US believes Russia has “no ability” to threaten Ukraine’s Black Sea port city of Odesa from the ground or sea. 


Russian troops may be preparing for a renewed offensive on the Southern Axis. 







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